Winner Take All: Bull Market For Some

On March 23, the stock market bottomed. Down a whopping 30% for the year in one of the most dramatic declines in history. Interesting enough, take a look at the market today and you'd think everything was fine. What happened?

The crash made sense. COVID-19 shook up the economy. Forcing countless industries to shut down, leading to massive job loss, bankruptcies and a whole lot of fear and uncertainty.

What doesn't make sense is the market since then. The pandemic is still in full force but the market has jumped 40%! How are companies doing so well?

In reality, most are not doing well at all. The few that are, are just doing REALLY well.

The top 5 companies in the S&P 500 are Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google. This group represents 20% of the index and is thriving in this environment. Up anywhere from 10% to 50% for the year, their success has made the market look good...on the surface.

Take a closer look and you'll see that most (smaller, non-tech) stocks have failed to keep up. Most are down at least 20% for the year. Some industries are carrying the brunt of it. Airlines, banks, energy, and auto stocks are down 30%+.

The stock market is dominated by a few extreme winners. This is not uncommon. It's one of the reasons stock picking is so hard, theres's only a few good stocks and you never know who's going to rise to the top.

Comments

The Art of Giving Feedback

Constructive feedback is an awkward affair. You don't want hurt feelings, but recognize the importance of honesty. You've tried the classic "hoping things will get better on its own" and unfortunately it hasn't played out. When giving feedback, here are a few things that I try to keep it mind. Start with empathy. Step into their shoes and understand their story. If you don't know, ask. Be genuinely curious. Feedback is a dynamic affair. Shared communication with a shared goal towards progress. Take the emotion out of it. Focus on the situation, not the person. Focusing on the person adds unnecessary weight to an already emotionally-bloated event. Be specific. Give clear examples. Vague feedback equals dismissed feedback. Doing above won't de-awkward things fully, but it will dampen it and increase the chance of better outcomes.

Bias For Clarity

Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction. Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud. Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end. The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off. Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea...

Negative Feedback, Positive Lessons

In the battle against plastic bags, a five-cent tax was shown to be much more successful at deterring usage than a five-cent credit for bringing your own bags. Carrots satisfy but sticks sting, and they sting hard. So we default to the less painful choice of avoiding loss. Loss aversion impacts the way we process information. A 2019 study invited participants to learn through a series of multiple choice questions. Each question only had two options to choose from. Whether guessing correctly or not, they would still learn the right answer. Despite the identical learning opportunity, participants were much more successful at recalling the answers they guessed correctly than those they got wrong. "You're right!" feels good. We savour the moment, analyzing every detail. "You're wrong!" stings. We want to quickly forget, dismiss, and move on. When we succumb to loss aversion, we miss opportunities to learn. Failure is part of the process. We'll experie...

Herman Ye

Search